When will the PV industry haze?

With the end of 2012, polysilicon prices remain bleak. The latest offer is about US$18/kg, which is lower than the cost of production. It fell more than 90% from 400 US$/kg three years ago. China's polysilicon companies have halted production by 90%.

In the fertile land on the market, the barbaric growth, and has always held the government-subsidized "baby bottle"; Once in Europe and the United States market by wind and waves, the most beautiful scenery but hit the wall return; just a few years time to rise quickly, creating one after another fascinating The wealth myths are now in a difficult situation... In China, what industry's fate reflects the hopes and losses of strategic emerging industries and new energy policies more than photovoltaics?

On December 19, the executive meeting of the State Council focused on policies and measures to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. In addition to the support and subsidies mentioned in the past, we pointed out in particular that we must use the “forced mechanism” of the market to encourage mergers and reorganization of enterprises, reduce government intervention, and prohibit local protection. The State Council pointed to the industrial malpractices. Can it eliminate the haze of PV?

Tough wintering Hefei, at the end of November, is located at the end of Mingzhu Avenue, the most fringe of the city. The dust and sparsely yellow grass that the winds raised raised the slightest chill in winter. Here, it is the location of the two largest photovoltaic companies in Hefei.

Clean and neat factory area, lined up with modern factories, LDK Solar High-tech Hefei Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Sevihe Hefei") factory gate closed. There are few vehicles on the road in front of the road, and the one-off bus that was once opened is now hard to find. Not far away, several employees’ dormitories that have been built have not yet been accommodated. "It's a holiday now, no one," said the guard of the Hefei plant in Hefei. When do you return to work? "Look again in March next year."

In early November, Salvi Hefei cancelled the special recruitment on campus. A few days ago, Seve Hefei posted on the official Weibo news that the nationalization of Hefei Sevi began to count down. At that time, the SASAC of Jiangxi Xinyu City, where Seville was headquartered, was involved. Earlier, the four ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Commerce, together with 36 banks, met with photovoltaic companies to “take care of the big ones,” and Levi was one of the “six majors” designated.

A few hundred meters away from Saiwei Hefei, another “Six Big” photovoltaic giant – Hefei Jingao Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Jiao Hefei”) days is not too sad. The busy employees in the office area, the rumbling machines in the workshop, and waiting for another visitor... The just-released three quarterly report shows that the domestic shipments of photovoltaic companies that were listed as key credit guarantee objects not long ago Doubled.

"The rise of the domestic market is a good news for Jinao." Jingao Hefei General Manager Cao Mingjing told the Securities Times reporter: "Jinao was an opportunity in 2013 because of the development of our domestic market in 2012. Yes, he predicted that by the year 2013, JA Solar will turn around as a whole.

When Hyundai's domestic overseas demand shrank sharply, the increase in the domestic market share of JA Solar was a bright light in the winter. The United States-listed Yingli Green Energy also announced earlier that the proportion of revenue from China in the third quarter increased from 14% in the second quarter to 28%, and it is expected that this proportion will continue to increase in the fourth quarter.

Since August, the Chinese government has successively introduced a series of industrial support policies aimed at promoting the expansion of domestic demand for photovoltaics, including raising the target of photovoltaic power generation, ensuring the credit supply of key enterprises, power subsidies, and grid-connected power generation. respite.

However, policy support is difficult to solve the thirst of excess capacity. Cao Mingjing also admitted that he still faces financial pressure. Not only debt, but also capital investment extended to the downstream power station, extension of the repayment period, and so on. To resolve these pressures, digesting inventory is a top priority.

At present, many companies are turning their attention to Africa, but the industry-wide war of inventory is ultimately at home. Haitong Securities reported that the current capacity of domestic photovoltaic companies is about 30 GW. According to the 12th Five-Year Plan, the planned installed capacity of photovoltaic distributed generation is 15 GW, which will consume at most 50% of the existing capacity. Some analysts have pointed out that the development of domestic PV has been triggered by huge subsidies from European and American countries. Now that subsidies have been cut, even existing demand has shrunk further.

"Everyone stresses how serious the US and Europe are. In fact, its damage to Jin'ao has not been affected much by the domestic price war of malignancy." Cao Mingjing said, "We hope to adapt the market to the survival of the fittest and match the demand and output. This is exactly what the State Council refers to as the "forced mechanism." However, this can't fall down, there is no withdrawal, only a swarm, and it has been a chronic illness in this emerging industry.

At the beginning of the local PV dream, photovoltaics were hot and local governments were competing to attract investment. In just a few years, 20 PV industrial parks have emerged across the country, 18 provinces have established new energy bases, and hundreds of cities have adopted new energy as a pillar industry, resulting in the listing of 15 US-listed and 23 A-share listed companies. Photovoltaic company. Now the situation has changed dramatically. How do the localities choose?

"If the local government gives up support, a large number of photovoltaic companies will go bankrupt right away, and the risk will be passed on to the bank. The cost will be borne by the entire society. Local governments can hardly let go." A new energy industry analyst told reporters. Today, at the local level, there are extreme cases in which Seville is nationalized and there are also rumors of fiscal subsidies or credit relief.

As a large-scale project for the development of new energy in Hefei, Jingdeao and LDK are personally recruited by provincial and municipal leaders. The time to settle in Hefei is around 2010, and it coincides with the high point of China's photovoltaic boom. According to the plan, Hefei plans to build China's "First City of Photovoltaic" in five years. The total investment of the Jingao Hefei Base Project is 13.5 billion yuan. It is expected that it will become the world's largest 3 GW solar energy integrated production base after its completion, with annual production value of 30 billion yuan and tax revenue of 6 billion yuan. The total investment of the first batch production line of the Saiwei Hefei base is about 2.5 billion yuan. It is estimated that the annual sales income after the production will be about 10 billion yuan, and the annual tax payment will not be less than 500 million yuan.

At present, the first production lines of the two companies have all been put into production, but the expected tax targets have been difficult to achieve and both are in trouble. Fortunately, Hefei does not give up. In the wake of the crisis, Jinao switched from a solar cell to a component manufacturer. During this period, the local government of Anhui strongly supported it. “Inciting the component industrial chain of the Hefei base needs 2 billion yuan, and the headquarters allocates 10 billion yuan, and the local government helps us to get 10 billion yuan.” An executive at Hefei, a Silicon Valley company, said.

Corner meets the "Guozi"

At present, the entire industry is expected to be used in photovoltaic applications, and photovoltaic power plants will begin a new round of boom. "Now the banking system has issued new regulations that do not support photovoltaic products and have turned to support power plants." Cao Mingjing told reporters. However, he also admitted that "the cost of the power station is not affordable to an ordinary manufacturing company."

"In fact, only large state-owned enterprises such as the five major power generation groups can enjoy the benchmarking tariff of the country, and some private enterprises are not able to get involved in this area." Meng Xianqi, deputy chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, pointed out that photovoltaic building integration The project involves urban construction planning, redesign and reconstruction of buildings, and the cost is often difficult to estimate.

For many large cities that are developing photovoltaic applications, the location of the power plant itself is a bottleneck. According to the Hefei Golden Sun demonstration project's goal of completing a 200 MW roof photovoltaic plant at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, there are currently more than 100 MW of unfinished roofs, requiring a roof area of ​​approximately 2.25 million square meters. Relevant person in charge of Hefei Golden Sun Company stated that the large-scale roof resources in Hefei are not abundant, and some of them cannot be established due to restrictions, which will bring constraints to the development of photovoltaic power plants in the future. On the other hand, Hefei's photovoltaic power generation conditions are not superior. According to reports, 1 watt of photovoltaic power in the western region can generate about 3-4 degrees of electricity, and Hefei can only produce 1 degree of electricity. "For local governments, doing a power station may not be the best option, but it can help companies digest production capacity." There are brokerage analysts believe that.

The existence of these problems did not stop the local development of photovoltaic dreams. For photovoltaic companies in the cold winter, the road is utterly arguable. Not only is it a vicious competition, the corner has also encountered a "national name." If the central enterprises strongly intervene, local governments and private enterprises will enter a new round of games.