After five years of monetary easing, the Fed is finally ready to close the valve. On the 19th, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke explained to the market in a clear, clear and affirmative language after the two-day Fed policy meeting, the economic situation has warmed up, and the Fed will slow down the pace of asset purchase later this year. The monetary easing (QE) with a total value of $85 billion will end in mid-2014.
It is foreseeable that the withdrawal of QE will inevitably lead to fluctuations in US debt and a stronger US dollar, and emerging markets will surely appear in the same place. In the face of this situation, how should we invest?
Analysts pointed out that Bernanke's position has a watershed meaning. This is the first time since the Fed launched its third wave of QEs, it has clearly established a framework for exit. Among them, the pre-requisites for not setting up QE exit, no longer promised the digital threshold of QE exit, is the two most important features of this watershed, reflecting the Fed's new management macroeconomic thinking.
Currency war is suspended
Some analysts believe that investors' rapid transition between emerging markets and commodities and the US dollar has become a thing of the past. Two special phenomena have emerged, and the low interest rate environment is being disintegrated.
First, the economically positive factors have made the dollar gradually stronger. The promotion of commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, as well as the sharp depreciation of the yen, has exacerbated the appreciation of the dollar. In addition, the euro zone is still clouded, unemployment and structural contradictions are still prominent, the bank credit system is riddled with holes, and sovereign debt is hot. The devaluation of the euro is likely to happen, and will definitely further exacerbate the appreciation of the dollar. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the appreciation of the US dollar will become a long-term phenomenon.
Second, the monetary and stock investment instruments in emerging markets are no longer tools that are destined to make a profit. The market's fundamental considerations and employment rates will become increasingly important factors, and this new thinking directly led to the suspension of currency arbitrage transactions worldwide. In the midst of turmoil, the currency war was suspended early. Last week, Brazilian Finance Minister Mattega reduced the tax on the short-selling dollar position by 1%. On the other hand, he expressed the government’s concern about the depreciation of the Real, knowing that Mattega himself is a "currency war". The initiator of the word.
At the same time, the devaluation of the South African Rand also shows that the rise of the gold price has come to an end. This is quite in line with the increase in the yield of US bonds. The reason is very simple. The increase in the yield of US bonds means that the liquidity is reduced and the opportunity cost of holding gold increases. The expectation of raising interest rates is often not conducive to the price of gold.
US manufacturing recovery
The logic of a stronger dollar comes from the re-emergence of manufacturing. For this logic, the dynamics of steel companies are the best indicators of verification.
Witnessing the rise and decline of the US steel industry is no more suitable than the Mahoning Valley in eastern Ohio. Last week, on top of a ruin, a new steel company from France, the Lurek Star, held a groundbreaking ceremony here. A new large iron-making steel furnace will be re-established, bringing life to this dead land.
Some other old European steel companies are naturally unwilling to lag behind. The Austrian Bentler Group will also invest nearly $7 billion to expand its steel pipe capacity in the United States. According to analysts from the steel market intelligence consulting firm, if the two companies are officially put into production and use, the US seamless steel pipe production capacity will increase by 60%. In the words of Gibson, president of the American Iron and Steel Association: "This is a steel revolution caused by shale." John Felicola, CEO of New Zealand's largest Newark Steel company, said: "Shale technology will put more Natural gas is brought to consumers, so drilling companies will need more steel pipes. Moreover, cheap natural gas will drive more manufacturing back to the US, which will further stimulate demand for steel.†The data proves that in the past 12 months Among them, Newcom's stock has risen by 20%, showing that investors are beginning to restore confidence.
It is foreseeable that the withdrawal of QE will inevitably lead to fluctuations in US debt and a stronger US dollar, and emerging markets will surely appear in the same place. In the face of this situation, how should we invest?
Analysts pointed out that Bernanke's position has a watershed meaning. This is the first time since the Fed launched its third wave of QEs, it has clearly established a framework for exit. Among them, the pre-requisites for not setting up QE exit, no longer promised the digital threshold of QE exit, is the two most important features of this watershed, reflecting the Fed's new management macroeconomic thinking.
Currency war is suspended
Some analysts believe that investors' rapid transition between emerging markets and commodities and the US dollar has become a thing of the past. Two special phenomena have emerged, and the low interest rate environment is being disintegrated.
First, the economically positive factors have made the dollar gradually stronger. The promotion of commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, as well as the sharp depreciation of the yen, has exacerbated the appreciation of the dollar. In addition, the euro zone is still clouded, unemployment and structural contradictions are still prominent, the bank credit system is riddled with holes, and sovereign debt is hot. The devaluation of the euro is likely to happen, and will definitely further exacerbate the appreciation of the dollar. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the appreciation of the US dollar will become a long-term phenomenon.
Second, the monetary and stock investment instruments in emerging markets are no longer tools that are destined to make a profit. The market's fundamental considerations and employment rates will become increasingly important factors, and this new thinking directly led to the suspension of currency arbitrage transactions worldwide. In the midst of turmoil, the currency war was suspended early. Last week, Brazilian Finance Minister Mattega reduced the tax on the short-selling dollar position by 1%. On the other hand, he expressed the government’s concern about the depreciation of the Real, knowing that Mattega himself is a "currency war". The initiator of the word.
At the same time, the devaluation of the South African Rand also shows that the rise of the gold price has come to an end. This is quite in line with the increase in the yield of US bonds. The reason is very simple. The increase in the yield of US bonds means that the liquidity is reduced and the opportunity cost of holding gold increases. The expectation of raising interest rates is often not conducive to the price of gold.
US manufacturing recovery
The logic of a stronger dollar comes from the re-emergence of manufacturing. For this logic, the dynamics of steel companies are the best indicators of verification.
Witnessing the rise and decline of the US steel industry is no more suitable than the Mahoning Valley in eastern Ohio. Last week, on top of a ruin, a new steel company from France, the Lurek Star, held a groundbreaking ceremony here. A new large iron-making steel furnace will be re-established, bringing life to this dead land.
Some other old European steel companies are naturally unwilling to lag behind. The Austrian Bentler Group will also invest nearly $7 billion to expand its steel pipe capacity in the United States. According to analysts from the steel market intelligence consulting firm, if the two companies are officially put into production and use, the US seamless steel pipe production capacity will increase by 60%. In the words of Gibson, president of the American Iron and Steel Association: "This is a steel revolution caused by shale." John Felicola, CEO of New Zealand's largest Newark Steel company, said: "Shale technology will put more Natural gas is brought to consumers, so drilling companies will need more steel pipes. Moreover, cheap natural gas will drive more manufacturing back to the US, which will further stimulate demand for steel.†The data proves that in the past 12 months Among them, Newcom's stock has risen by 20%, showing that investors are beginning to restore confidence.
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