Many institutions predict a 6.7% GDP growth rate this year. The economy will continue to stabilize in the second half of the year.

From June to June, the chess industry went to the Central Bureau, and market institutions had pre-judgmented the economic operation in the second half of the year. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter comprehensively predicts that the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter will exceed the expected increase, which will raise the annual economic growth center. Although it will fall slightly in the second half of the year, it will continue to be stable throughout the year. The trend, the growth rate may be 6.7%. In terms of prices, it will remain low for the whole year. In terms of investment, opportunities and pressures coexist in the second half of the year. Improvements in corporate efficiency have improved investment capacity and investment expectations. However, the policy effects of real estate regulation continue to be released, and the adverse impact on real estate investment growth will gradually emerge.

Stable throughout the year, economic growth maintains resilience
Many institutions predict that although China's economic growth rate will not exceed expectations in the second quarter of this year, it will maintain a fairly strong resilience. This steady trend will continue throughout the year.
China's People's University National Development and Strategy Research Institute and other institutions previously released "China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast (Mid 2017)" forecast that in the first half of 2017, China's GDP was 180.83 billion yuan, the actual GDP growth rate of 6.9%, compared with In the same period of the year and the whole year, the increase was 0.2 percentage points. On the assumption that the fiscal deficit rate is 3%, the exchange rate is 7%, and on the basis of the international economic recovery and the superposition of domestic policies, the annual GDP growth rate in 2017 will reach 6.7%.
Xie Yaxuan, the chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, also expects the annual GDP growth rate to be 6.7%. He believes that the higher-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter has raised the level of the annual economic growth center, but the economy will then fall slightly, considering The strict attitude toward financial supervision exceeded expectations, consumption remained stable but lacked flexibility, and the marginal impact of investment volatility on the economic situation could not be fully hedged, and export improvement was also difficult to resolve the negative impact of investment volatility.
"It is expected that economic growth will show 'resilience' in the second half of the year, and the real GDP growth rate will remain at 6.8%." Liang Hong, head of the research department of CICC, is more confident that domestic demand in the second half of the year will grow steadily and superimpose external demand. Further recovery. Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, believes that the future economic growth will be constrained by the high base effect, and the high probability of the year-on-year growth rate of the economy has emerged.
It is worth mentioning that as the leading indicator of economic monitoring, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been in the expansion range of 51.0% for 8 consecutive months. Chen Zhongtao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said that PMI showed that the overall production and operation situation of the company is good. This is due to the continued stable and stable macroeconomic environment, improved market, and benefit from favorable policies.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that the continuous presence of PMI in the expansion interval indicates that the steady growth of economic growth is further clear. Comprehensive research and judgment, economic growth is shifting from a short-term high to a steady trend.

Narrowing the scissors and returning the difference to a reasonable interval
Since the beginning of this year, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Producer Ex-factory Price Index (PPI) data have once appeared “scissors difference” (CPI year-on-year decline, PPI year-on-year decline), and later, with the impact of hikes and other factors, the scissors are slow. Slow down. The agency predicts that prices will remain low in this year, and the scissors will return to a reasonable range. The price of the year is not the main target of monetary policy. There is no inflationary pressure on the current price situation and operating conditions, and there is no risk of deflation.
Liang Hong predicted that the CPI growth rate in 2017 will be 1.7%, as food prices fell more than expected, while the PPI growth rate was 3.6%, as domestic financial leverage has reduced inflation expectations since March, and global inflation expectations have also declined.
Xie Yaxuan predicts that in the second half of this year, China's CPI trend will continue to show a moderate upward trend. The CPI growth rate in the next three quarters will be 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2%, respectively.
Since the beginning of this year, the overall price of food has been sluggish. Vegetable prices, pig prices and egg prices have continued to fall. The egg market price has once hit a 10-year low. However, due to the hikes, the CPI in May has increased by 1.5% year-on-year. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, believes that CPI may rise in the near future due to the peak of the year in June. However, in the second half of the year, with the slight decline in aggregate demand, the deregulation of regulatory policies and the risk prevention, the liquidity has tightened and the market interest rate has risen slightly, which will lead to price pressure. It is expected that the CPI will show a trend of high in the middle and low in the middle of the year.
In terms of PPI, the rapid rise from the end of last year to the beginning of this year has come to an end. As of now, the year-on-year increase has been falling for three consecutive months, and the market generally expects this trend to continue. Lian Ping said that the PPI hikes factor continues to decline month by month, which will become an important factor affecting the weakening of PPI. The replenishment cycle of enterprises has gradually weakened, and the recovery of industrial and manufacturing production has slowed down. The monetary policy is stable and neutral and financial supervision is de-lost. There will be no release of liquidity to raise industrial products. Therefore, the probability of PPI growth continues to narrow.
Hu Yuexiao, assistant general manager and chief analyst of Shanghai Securities Research Institute, also said that the “high price” in the industrial sector was not really high, only that industrial prices rebounded faster. Affected by the base effect, the future will enter a continuous decline channel. In the overall “bottom” pattern of the economy, weak demand has determined the downturn in consumer prices. The future price trend will still maintain a high and low portfolio, but it is worth noting that the middle of the year may experience a double downside situation.

Force investment will maintain rapid growth
In terms of investment that has a direct effect on economic growth, the year-on-year growth rate of national fixed asset investment in the first five months of this year has declined somewhat, but on the sub-indicators, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has increased, and infrastructure investment has increased. It also maintained a high level of operation, and the growth rate of private investment in the month was a sharp rise. The agency predicts that investment growth this year will continue to grow rapidly.
Gao Yuwei, a researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Institute, believes that with the further relaxation of project and financial constraints, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will not continue to fall, and it is expected to stabilize at a relatively high level of around 20%; the external demand will strengthen and the profit of enterprises will improve. Under the hood, manufacturing investment is expected to rise steadily, especially in high-tech industries, which will continue to grow at a high rate. Overall, it is expected that investment will continue to grow rapidly in the future, and the annual growth rate will be higher than the previous year.
Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that since the beginning of this year, the improvement of the real economy, especially the improvement of corporate profits, has improved the investment capacity and investment expectations of enterprises. Therefore, the potential and space for domestic growth is still very large, and the key is to find the right point.
In addition, some experts have suggested that investment in the second half of the year also faces many pressure factors. Jiang Chao said that the core variable that determines investment is real estate investment. The current real estate investment growth rate is still at a high level in the past two years. However, since the real estate regulation has been tightened since October 2016, real estate sales have been sharply increased for three consecutive quarters. The decline, even if the lagging transmission period of considering real estate sales to investment is extended from half a year to three quarters, its drag on real estate investment will be clearly reflected in the second half of the year.
Xie Yaxuan also believes that due to the slowdown in real estate investment, the growth rate of investment in the second half will gradually weaken. In addition, industrial companies have recently felt that the rise in financing interest rates has eroded profit margins. The manufacturing profit improvement momentum has also been affected in the context of strong regulation, which may slow the recovery of manufacturing investment. However, as the investment growth rate reached 9.2% in the first quarter of this year, it is expected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment for the whole year will still be slightly higher than the 2016 level.
Lian Ping also said that there may be pressure on investment in the second half of the year. In particular, with the adjustment of real estate market policies, the financing of real estate enterprises will continue to be sluggish, and the growth rate of real estate development investment may decline significantly in the future. The rebound in exports has driven related manufacturing production and investment, but domestic demand is difficult to continue to improve, and manufacturing investment has maintained a low growth rate. Stabilizing growth and promoting investment mainly focus on infrastructure construction.

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