In the first ten months of this year, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 4.8666 trillion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in January-September. In October, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 559.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year...
From January to October, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 4.8666 trillion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in January-September. In October, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 559.52 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, and the decline was 4.5 percentage points higher than that in September.
Among the industrial enterprises above designated size, the state-owned holding enterprises realized total profit of 908.06 billion yuan in January-October, down 25% year-on-year; collective enterprises realized total profit of 39.53 billion yuan, down 1.8%; joint-stock enterprises realized total profit of 326.87 billion yuan, down 1.5%. Foreign-invested enterprises, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese investment enterprises realized a total profit of 1,208.29 billion yuan, an increase of 0.3%; private enterprises realized a total profit of 175.11 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2%.
From January to October, the mining industry realized a total profit of 229.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.3%; the manufacturing industry realized a total profit of 419.98 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%; the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries realized a total profit of 443.29 billion yuan. Growth of 11.5%.
From January to October, among the 41 major industrial sectors, the total profit of 30 industries increased year-on-year, and 11 industries declined. Profit growth of major industries: Total profit of agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 12.2% year-on-year, textile industry increased by 6.8%, petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry increased by 76.1%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 8.6%, general equipment manufacturing Industry growth of 0.3%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13.9%, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13.2%, power, heat production and supply industry increased by 12%, coal mining and washing industry fell by 62.1%, oil And natural gas mining industry decreased by 68.6%, non-metallic mineral products industry decreased by 8.2%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 68.3%, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 4.8%, special equipment manufacturing decreased by 3.4%, automobile manufacturing Decreased by 3.1%.
From January to October, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a revenue of 89,372.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%; the cost of the main business was 769.372 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%.
At the end of October, the assets of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 98,240.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; the total liabilities were 557.76 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6%; the total owner's equity was 42,473.31 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6%.
From January to October, the profit rate of the main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.45%, the cost per 100 yuan of main business income was 86.09 yuan, and the main business income realized per 100 yuan of assets was 113.7 yuan, per capita. The business income was 1.151 million yuan, the inventory turnover days of finished products were 14.6 days, and the average payback period of accounts receivable was 36.1 days. At the end of October, the asset-liability ratio was 56.8%.
Bureau of Statistics Interprets Industrial Profit Data: Product Sales Decline Further
According to the financial data of industrial enterprises released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 27, from January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 2% year-on-year, and the decrease was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of January-September. Among them, the profit in October fell by 4.6%, and the decline was 4.5 percentage points higher than that in September.
Compared with the previous months, the impact of investment income, exchange losses and special oil revenues on corporate profit fluctuations has been significantly weakened. Main reasons for the decline in profit in October:
From the point of view of sales, product sales have further declined. In October, due to the slowdown in production growth and the decline in product prices, the income from the main business of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from September, and has shown negative growth for two consecutive months.
In terms of cost, unit costs and expenses have increased. In October, the cost of industrial enterprises' main business income per 100 yuan was 85.84 yuan, up by 0.04 yuan year-on-year; the total cost per 100 yuan of main business income was 7.2 yuan, up 0.18 yuan.
From the perspective of the industry, the profits of the mining and raw materials industries such as oil extraction, steel and coal have dropped significantly. In October, the oil and gas exploration industry realized a profit of 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.54 billion yuan; the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry lost 1.55 billion yuan, a profit of 16.45 billion yuan in the same period last year; the coal mining and washing industry realized a profit of 6.96 billion yuan. Yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.34 billion yuan. These three industries have reduced profits by 48.88 billion yuan, 1.8 times the profit reduction of enterprises above designated size.
It is worth noting that while the overall profit of the industry has declined, the profit of the industry in line with the transformation and upgrading direction has maintained a good growth. In October, high-tech manufacturing profits increased by 14.2% year-on-year, equipment manufacturing industry grew by 8.6%, and consumer-related industries grew by 4.3%. In addition, the slowdown in corporate inventories is conducive to companies to ease the pressure of future production and operation. At the end of October, the inventory of finished products increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the end of September, showing a further slowdown.
Stock ghosts linger on the profit rescue is not coming
Data: From January to October, the main business income of industrial enterprises was 1% (previous value: 1.2%), profit was -2%, and the decline continued to expand (previous value -1.7%).
Comments:
1 Profits continued to decline year on year, the reason is still low income and high cost. From the perspective of income-cost = profit formula, only the cost decline is faster than the decline in income, and the profit will be improved. Therefore, only the improvement of the cost of downstream income is the only rescue of profit. However, the current income and price pressures continue to decline, the volume is subject to the sluggish demand side, the price is subject to high inventory can not be turned over; the cost itself is sticky, the labor cost is subject to aging and can not be cleared, management costs Subject to high inventory, it is unable to effectively follow the reduction and continue to erode profits.
2 high inventory is the ghost behind the profit, the inventory goes long. The results of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the inventory are not obvious, the inventory is unclear, the price can't afford, and the profit and investment can't see the turn. From the upstream point of view, the raw material storage-to-sale ratio (inventory/sales dynamic average) is at a high level, coal storage and sales have shown a significant upward trend since August; the total storage and sales ratio of the middle and the last steel is located in the past few years, inventory breakdown, steel traders Inventory is lower (indicating that it is not optimistic for downstream demand), steel mills have high inventory, no obvious de-conversion; downstream demand demand, real estate inventory is Alexa, sales improvement is not sustainable, the ratio of storage to sales has increased, cars have been reduced The tax withdrawal policy is favorable, and there is a certain degree of destocking at the margin of the stock but it is still at a high level. On the whole, the destocking needs to be transferred from the terminal demand inventory to the real estate investment. After that, it is the mid-upstream raw material manufacturing destocking. At present, the first step has not yet had obvious effect, and the real estate investment does not bottom out. Industrial destocking and de-capacity are not completed, and the profitability of industrial enterprises cannot be improved.
3 The industry structure looks weak overall, and the internal display is weakly differentiated. The upstream resource mining industry and the ferrous metal processing industry are still performing poorly. The midstream manufacturing industry is still performing well due to lower cost, and the downstream terminals are still under pressure. In terms of enterprise type, the profit of state-owned holding enterprises has increased by -25% year-on-year. The value of -24.4%), the current positive contribution is only private, but the profit growth rate of private enterprises fell slightly by 6.2% (previous value of 7.1%), and the private sector will be dragged down.
4 policy trends? Monetary policy will still be loose, but it is dominated by hedging and is no longer the protagonist. In the long run, the risk of real interest rate hikes caused by deflation, the base currency gap caused by the contraction of foreign exchange holdings needs to be hedged by monetary easing, and there is still room for interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, interest rates have been fully liberalized, the marginal effect of interest rate cuts is declining, and interest rates have fallen to a low level. The marginal space for interest rate cuts is limited, and the space for future interest rate cuts is not as good as the RRR cut. The fiscal policy will gradually become the protagonist. It is expected that the fiscal deficit rate will expand to at least 2.5% next year. On the one hand, tax cuts will reduce corporate tax costs, stimulate consumer demand, and increase expenditures on the other. The government has increased leverage to expand corporate terminal demand and improve corporate profits from the revenue side.
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