Based on the survey data of 28 countries (regions) published by Gardner Publications on the Internet in the United States, this paper reviews the ups and downs of the world machine tool market in 2005. The author first This is a thank you to Gardner Publications. Although the survey only includes 28 countries, it can reflect the global machine tool production and consumption. For example, the sum of its machine tool output accounts for more than 90% of the world's total machine tool output. Therefore, this paper approximates the total value of the corresponding data of the world in the same year in terms of the output value, export value, import amount and consumption of these 28 countries (regions). Although not very accurate, it is easy to describe the general situation of the world machine tool market.
The world's machine tool market in 2005 The world economy is changing and the world machine tool market is also rising and falling. After the world economy fell into a downturn in 2001, the momentum of recovery in 2003 was significantly enhanced. 2004 was a year of accelerated growth in the world economy. In 2005, the global economy remained active, still maintaining a relatively strong growth of about 4.4%. Correspondingly, the four major indicators of the world machine tool market (output value, export value, import value, consumption amount) have increased by double-digit growth rate for three consecutive years since 2003. The increase in 2004 exceeded 20%, but since the total value of the four major indicators of countries (regions) is calculated in US dollars, it naturally includes the factors that the US dollar has decreased relative to the exchange rate between the euro and the Japanese yen. In 2005, the exchange rate of the US dollar was weaker (the annual average exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro remained stable, and the exchange rate against the Japanese yen also increased slightly). Therefore, the changes in the world's four major machine tool values ​​calculated in US dollars in 2005 are closer to reality. Happening.
In 2005, 55.3% of the world's machine tool production entered the international machine tool market through exports, and 53.8% of the world's total machine tool consumption came from the international machine tool market. The deeper the development of economic globalization, the more prominent the status of machine tool foreign trade.
The rise of the Asian machine tool market was an important trend in the world machine tool market in 2005. In particular, India's machine tool production and consumption growth in 2005 reached 48% and 73%, respectively, which was the highest in the world. In 2005, the sum of machine tool output values ​​of Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea and India in the five Asian countries and regions was 24.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 23% over the previous year, accounting for 47.6% of the world's total machine tool output that year, and the previous year ( 2004) only accounted for 44.1%. On behalf of the European machine tool industry CECIMO (European Machine Tool Industry Cooperation Committee), the combined value of machine tools in 15 member countries including Germany, Italy and Switzerland was US$21.9 billion in 2005, an increase of 7% over the previous year. The proportion was 42.3% (5.3 percentage points lower than the above five Asian countries and regions), while the proportions in 2004 and 2003 were 44.7% and 48% respectively. In terms of machine tool consumption, the leading position in the Asian market is more obvious. The sum of the machine consumption in 2005 in the above five Asian countries and regions accounted for 50.5% of the world's machine tool consumption in that year.
In 2005, the world's top ten machine tool producing countries (regions) and their export world machine tools were relatively concentrated. The top ten countries and regions in the world together accounted for 90% of the world's total machine tool output in 2005, of which the top five accounted for nearly 70%, especially the first two Japan and Germany together accounted for 43.9% of the world's total machine tool output in 2005. It is worth noting that the value of machine tools in Japan and Germany has further widened. In 2005, Japan's machine tool output was 39.4% higher than that of Germany, and it produced more than 3.75 billion US dollars.
Compared with the previous year, the order of ranking of the top ten machine tool producing countries (regions) in the world changed in 2005. The rankings of China and Italy, South Korea and Switzerland have all changed. China has risen to third place and Italy has fallen to fourth place. South Korea has risen to seventh place and Switzerland has fallen to eighth place. The US machine tool output ranking has dropped to the sixth place in the world for two consecutive years, and Canada's machine tool output ranking has risen to the top 10 from the previous year.
Throughout 2005, the growth rate of machine tool output in the top ten machine tool producing countries (regions) was positive. The highest growth rate is in Japan (28%) and China (23%), which is closely related to Japan's economic recovery in recent years and the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy. The output value of these two countries in the past three years is not lower than The speed of 20% has increased sharply; the growth rate of the United States is the lowest, only 1%. In fact, the demand for machine tools in the US market has not increased in 2005, but this growth is almost exclusively for imported machine tools; Europe's machine tool producing countries Germany and Italy Its machine tool output value has only moderate growth as the economy, with an increase of 6% and 5% respectively.
Similar to machine tool production, in 2005, Japan and Germany's machine tool exports accounted for 44.8% of the world's exports, far ahead of other countries (regions). However, in 2005, Japan exported more than US$242 million worth of machine tools to Germany, with exports reaching US$6.457 billion, surpassing Germany to become the new world machine tool export champion. China’s machine tool exports in 2005 were only $800 million, but the 48% increase was the highest among the 28 countries surveyed. The world ranking of machine tool exports rose from 12th in 2004 to 8th. Bit.
Among the top ten machine tool producing countries (regions), only the US machine tool exports in 2005 decreased by 6% compared with the previous year, and the rest have varying degrees of growth. In 2005, the machine tool export ratio (the percentage of exports to machine tool output) of the top ten machine tool producing countries (regions) was still the highest in Switzerland and Taiwan, 86% and 80% respectively, followed by Germany (65%) and Italy ( 58%), Spain (55%) and Japan (49%), and South Korea also reached 41%. China's machine tool export ratio is still the lowest, only 16%. In 2005, the world's machine tool exports accounted for only 2.8%. This shows that China has a lot of room to expand its machine tool exports, and it also shows that China's machine tool export needs to be improved. .
In 2005, the world's top ten machine tool consumers (regions) and their import so-called machine tool consumption refers to the value of their machine tool plus the import value minus the export value, which is an important indicator of the country's machine tool market capacity in a certain year. index. In 2005, the size of the consumption of machine tools in various countries (regions) and the changes in their consumption were not only related to the size of their economies, but also reflected the economic situation of their manufacturing industries.
Among the world's top ten machine tool consumers (regions) in 2005, only Taiwanese and Italian machine tool consumption was negative growth and zero growth, and the rest were positive growth. In 2005, China’s machine tool consumption reached US$10.9 billion, which was the second highest in Japan’s US$3.37 billion. It ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. This also reflects China’s fastest growing economy in the world. . Japan’s machine tool consumption in 2005 not only increased the most (29%), but also ranked second in the world for two consecutive years. The US economy continued to grow strongly in 2005, and its machine tool consumption also rebounded 14% to US$5.82 billion, surpassing Germany in the world's third. It is particularly worth mentioning that South Korea's machine tool consumption increased by 20% from the previous year to US$3.67 billion, making it the top five in the world's machine tool consumption ranking for the first time.
China is the world's largest machine tool consumer for four consecutive years (2002-2005), the world's largest machine tool importer for four consecutive years, or the world's largest machine tool trade deficit country for four consecutive years. In 2005, the import value of China's machine tools was 6.7 billion US dollars, and the trade deficit of machine tools was 5.9 billion US dollars, which was 77.3% and 122.6% higher than the US. In 2005, the import value of US machine tools increased by 20% from the previous year to 3.778 billion US dollars, and the trade deficit of machine tools reached 2.65 billion US dollars, which is second only to China. The dependence of China and the United States on imported machine tools in 2005 (the percentage of machine tool imports to machine tool consumption) was 61% and 65%, respectively, while the machine tool export ratio was only 16% and 35%. A country that is small and big. In sharp contrast to this, Japan, the second largest machine tool consumer, had only 10% dependence on imported machine tools in 2005 (machine tool imports amounted to US$730 million), machine tool export ratio was 49%, and machine tool trade surplus was the most. , up to 5.73 billion US dollars, apparently in the foreign trade of machine tools is a typical big country. The import and export volume of machine tools in Germany and Italy has a certain scale, and the export ratio of machine tools is obviously greater than the dependence on imports and there are many foreign trade surpluses. For example, Germany, which is a machine tool manufacturing country, has an export ratio of 65% in 2005. The dependence on imported machine tools is 38%, and the foreign trade surplus of machine tools is 4.2 billion. It can be seen that the export ratio of machine tools in a country, the dependence on imported machine tools and the size of the machine tool trade surplus reflect the competitiveness of a machine tool in the world machine tool market.
Outlook for the World Machine Tool Market in 2006 Most domestic and foreign institutions predict that global economic growth in 2006 will be slightly higher than in 2005, and will maintain a relatively high growth rate. According to the outlook report released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in November 2005, the overall economic growth rate of the 30 members of the organization in 2006 will reach 2.9%, higher than the 2.7% in 2005. Among them, the euro zone countries will rise from 1.4% in 2005 to 2.1% (internal China and Germany will rise from 1.1% in 2005 to 1.8%), but the United States and Japan will fall from 3.6% and 2.4% in 2005 to 3.5% and 2.0%.
In view of the fact that the state of the world economy generally determines the trend of the world machine tool market in the past, if there is no accident, the global economic prospects continue to be promising in 2006, so the four major indicators of the world machine tool market will continue to grow in 2006 after three consecutive years of increase, especially It is the European machine tool market that may be more active. However, there have been some unfavorable news recently: First, the total value of machine tool orders in Japan (the largest machine tool producer today) is forecast to fall by 11% compared with 2005; the second is China (the world's largest machine tool consumer) 2006 In the year of increase in machine tool consumption, the forecast is likely to fall from double digits in 2005 to single digits. In general, these unfavorable factors are not enough to change the upward trend of the world machine tool market in 2006. At most, it will only affect the growth of the four major indicators. We have every reason to be cautiously optimistic about the world machine tool market in 2006.
The world's machine tool market in 2005 The world economy is changing and the world machine tool market is also rising and falling. After the world economy fell into a downturn in 2001, the momentum of recovery in 2003 was significantly enhanced. 2004 was a year of accelerated growth in the world economy. In 2005, the global economy remained active, still maintaining a relatively strong growth of about 4.4%. Correspondingly, the four major indicators of the world machine tool market (output value, export value, import value, consumption amount) have increased by double-digit growth rate for three consecutive years since 2003. The increase in 2004 exceeded 20%, but since the total value of the four major indicators of countries (regions) is calculated in US dollars, it naturally includes the factors that the US dollar has decreased relative to the exchange rate between the euro and the Japanese yen. In 2005, the exchange rate of the US dollar was weaker (the annual average exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro remained stable, and the exchange rate against the Japanese yen also increased slightly). Therefore, the changes in the world's four major machine tool values ​​calculated in US dollars in 2005 are closer to reality. Happening.
In 2005, 55.3% of the world's machine tool production entered the international machine tool market through exports, and 53.8% of the world's total machine tool consumption came from the international machine tool market. The deeper the development of economic globalization, the more prominent the status of machine tool foreign trade.
The rise of the Asian machine tool market was an important trend in the world machine tool market in 2005. In particular, India's machine tool production and consumption growth in 2005 reached 48% and 73%, respectively, which was the highest in the world. In 2005, the sum of machine tool output values ​​of Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea and India in the five Asian countries and regions was 24.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 23% over the previous year, accounting for 47.6% of the world's total machine tool output that year, and the previous year ( 2004) only accounted for 44.1%. On behalf of the European machine tool industry CECIMO (European Machine Tool Industry Cooperation Committee), the combined value of machine tools in 15 member countries including Germany, Italy and Switzerland was US$21.9 billion in 2005, an increase of 7% over the previous year. The proportion was 42.3% (5.3 percentage points lower than the above five Asian countries and regions), while the proportions in 2004 and 2003 were 44.7% and 48% respectively. In terms of machine tool consumption, the leading position in the Asian market is more obvious. The sum of the machine consumption in 2005 in the above five Asian countries and regions accounted for 50.5% of the world's machine tool consumption in that year.
In 2005, the world's top ten machine tool producing countries (regions) and their export world machine tools were relatively concentrated. The top ten countries and regions in the world together accounted for 90% of the world's total machine tool output in 2005, of which the top five accounted for nearly 70%, especially the first two Japan and Germany together accounted for 43.9% of the world's total machine tool output in 2005. It is worth noting that the value of machine tools in Japan and Germany has further widened. In 2005, Japan's machine tool output was 39.4% higher than that of Germany, and it produced more than 3.75 billion US dollars.
Compared with the previous year, the order of ranking of the top ten machine tool producing countries (regions) in the world changed in 2005. The rankings of China and Italy, South Korea and Switzerland have all changed. China has risen to third place and Italy has fallen to fourth place. South Korea has risen to seventh place and Switzerland has fallen to eighth place. The US machine tool output ranking has dropped to the sixth place in the world for two consecutive years, and Canada's machine tool output ranking has risen to the top 10 from the previous year.
Throughout 2005, the growth rate of machine tool output in the top ten machine tool producing countries (regions) was positive. The highest growth rate is in Japan (28%) and China (23%), which is closely related to Japan's economic recovery in recent years and the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy. The output value of these two countries in the past three years is not lower than The speed of 20% has increased sharply; the growth rate of the United States is the lowest, only 1%. In fact, the demand for machine tools in the US market has not increased in 2005, but this growth is almost exclusively for imported machine tools; Europe's machine tool producing countries Germany and Italy Its machine tool output value has only moderate growth as the economy, with an increase of 6% and 5% respectively.
Similar to machine tool production, in 2005, Japan and Germany's machine tool exports accounted for 44.8% of the world's exports, far ahead of other countries (regions). However, in 2005, Japan exported more than US$242 million worth of machine tools to Germany, with exports reaching US$6.457 billion, surpassing Germany to become the new world machine tool export champion. China’s machine tool exports in 2005 were only $800 million, but the 48% increase was the highest among the 28 countries surveyed. The world ranking of machine tool exports rose from 12th in 2004 to 8th. Bit.
Among the top ten machine tool producing countries (regions), only the US machine tool exports in 2005 decreased by 6% compared with the previous year, and the rest have varying degrees of growth. In 2005, the machine tool export ratio (the percentage of exports to machine tool output) of the top ten machine tool producing countries (regions) was still the highest in Switzerland and Taiwan, 86% and 80% respectively, followed by Germany (65%) and Italy ( 58%), Spain (55%) and Japan (49%), and South Korea also reached 41%. China's machine tool export ratio is still the lowest, only 16%. In 2005, the world's machine tool exports accounted for only 2.8%. This shows that China has a lot of room to expand its machine tool exports, and it also shows that China's machine tool export needs to be improved. .
In 2005, the world's top ten machine tool consumers (regions) and their import so-called machine tool consumption refers to the value of their machine tool plus the import value minus the export value, which is an important indicator of the country's machine tool market capacity in a certain year. index. In 2005, the size of the consumption of machine tools in various countries (regions) and the changes in their consumption were not only related to the size of their economies, but also reflected the economic situation of their manufacturing industries.
Among the world's top ten machine tool consumers (regions) in 2005, only Taiwanese and Italian machine tool consumption was negative growth and zero growth, and the rest were positive growth. In 2005, China’s machine tool consumption reached US$10.9 billion, which was the second highest in Japan’s US$3.37 billion. It ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. This also reflects China’s fastest growing economy in the world. . Japan’s machine tool consumption in 2005 not only increased the most (29%), but also ranked second in the world for two consecutive years. The US economy continued to grow strongly in 2005, and its machine tool consumption also rebounded 14% to US$5.82 billion, surpassing Germany in the world's third. It is particularly worth mentioning that South Korea's machine tool consumption increased by 20% from the previous year to US$3.67 billion, making it the top five in the world's machine tool consumption ranking for the first time.
China is the world's largest machine tool consumer for four consecutive years (2002-2005), the world's largest machine tool importer for four consecutive years, or the world's largest machine tool trade deficit country for four consecutive years. In 2005, the import value of China's machine tools was 6.7 billion US dollars, and the trade deficit of machine tools was 5.9 billion US dollars, which was 77.3% and 122.6% higher than the US. In 2005, the import value of US machine tools increased by 20% from the previous year to 3.778 billion US dollars, and the trade deficit of machine tools reached 2.65 billion US dollars, which is second only to China. The dependence of China and the United States on imported machine tools in 2005 (the percentage of machine tool imports to machine tool consumption) was 61% and 65%, respectively, while the machine tool export ratio was only 16% and 35%. A country that is small and big. In sharp contrast to this, Japan, the second largest machine tool consumer, had only 10% dependence on imported machine tools in 2005 (machine tool imports amounted to US$730 million), machine tool export ratio was 49%, and machine tool trade surplus was the most. , up to 5.73 billion US dollars, apparently in the foreign trade of machine tools is a typical big country. The import and export volume of machine tools in Germany and Italy has a certain scale, and the export ratio of machine tools is obviously greater than the dependence on imports and there are many foreign trade surpluses. For example, Germany, which is a machine tool manufacturing country, has an export ratio of 65% in 2005. The dependence on imported machine tools is 38%, and the foreign trade surplus of machine tools is 4.2 billion. It can be seen that the export ratio of machine tools in a country, the dependence on imported machine tools and the size of the machine tool trade surplus reflect the competitiveness of a machine tool in the world machine tool market.
Outlook for the World Machine Tool Market in 2006 Most domestic and foreign institutions predict that global economic growth in 2006 will be slightly higher than in 2005, and will maintain a relatively high growth rate. According to the outlook report released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in November 2005, the overall economic growth rate of the 30 members of the organization in 2006 will reach 2.9%, higher than the 2.7% in 2005. Among them, the euro zone countries will rise from 1.4% in 2005 to 2.1% (internal China and Germany will rise from 1.1% in 2005 to 1.8%), but the United States and Japan will fall from 3.6% and 2.4% in 2005 to 3.5% and 2.0%.
In view of the fact that the state of the world economy generally determines the trend of the world machine tool market in the past, if there is no accident, the global economic prospects continue to be promising in 2006, so the four major indicators of the world machine tool market will continue to grow in 2006 after three consecutive years of increase, especially It is the European machine tool market that may be more active. However, there have been some unfavorable news recently: First, the total value of machine tool orders in Japan (the largest machine tool producer today) is forecast to fall by 11% compared with 2005; the second is China (the world's largest machine tool consumer) 2006 In the year of increase in machine tool consumption, the forecast is likely to fall from double digits in 2005 to single digits. In general, these unfavorable factors are not enough to change the upward trend of the world machine tool market in 2006. At most, it will only affect the growth of the four major indicators. We have every reason to be cautiously optimistic about the world machine tool market in 2006.
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