On February 27th, according to the Voice of Economics "Transaction Reality" report, Zhao Hong, a non-metallic building materials industry analyst in Shanxi Securities, was interviewed by the "Transaction Reality" to interpret investment opportunities in the glass industry. Zhao Hong believes that the current growth rate of demand in the glass industry is slow growth. .
At present, from the perspective of supply, is the glass industry still in a state of overcapacity?
Zhao Hong: Right. Now that we measure an industry surplus and surplus, we can refer to a capacity profit rate or equipment profit rate indicator used by developed countries. The normal value is at the level of 79%-85%, and the industry capacity is considered to be more than 90%. Not enough, the demand is very strong; if it is below 79%, there is a surplus situation. The current situation in our country is that from 2000 to 2012, the entire glass industry's capacity profit margin is only three years in the middle, that is, the profit margins in 2000, 2003 and 2011 exceeded 80%, and other years were basically below 75%, so The situation of overcapacity is still quite serious. The surplus is mainly due to the increase in production capacity in the industry in the past two years. The capacity growth rate in the past ten years is around 15%. Last year, the demand of the whole industry was not strong, and the growth rate of production capacity was still more than 8%. Therefore, the supply is increasing. As a result, the productivity profit rate is very low, and the overall surplus is also serious and more and more serious.
Such overcapacity, how long does it take if it is normal to digest?
Zhao Hong: This depends on the change in the growth rate of demand in the downstream. Like last year, it was a negative growth, but it did not digest. I feel that the growth rate of demand in the future is a low-speed growth.
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