In the past few days, the shocks caused by the "double opposition" of the United States against China have been seldom known in recent years. "This high anti-dumping duty will undoubtedly have a huge impact on China's polysilicon photovoltaic industry. The low cost advantage will be lost in the US market. Domestic PV companies should turn more attention to the domestic market." Xiamen University China Energy Economy Lin Boqiang, director of the research center, said. Some analysts said that the US "double-reverse" may become a sign of the dual turning point of China's photovoltaic industry: First, let enterprises deeply understand the over-reliance on the passiveness of overseas markets, forcing them to "turn around" and bring the industry The future is more dependent on the expansion of the domestic market; second, after this "double opposition", in the technical route, the entire industry will be accelerated from crystalline silicon to thin film. Why should we “turn around†the situation of China’s PV industry in the context of “double-reverseâ€, Li Hejun, chairman of the board of directors of the All-China New Energy Chamber of Commerce and Chairman of the Hanergy Holding Group, said: “If the US’s “double-reverse†finally follows the preliminary results Implementation will affect China's PV products export to the United States within a certain period of time." But he believes that for Chinese PV companies, it should become a crisis, "adjust solar energy structure, accelerate enterprise integration and technological progress, and further expand domestic and foreign markets." ". CIC consultants also released an analysis report saying: "At this stage, Chinese PV companies should take advantage of the strategic opportunity period to further expand their competitive advantages and seek to capture the market opportunities brought about by the large-scale outbreak of the PV market in the future." In the opinion of the people, the relevant “market opportunities†include the domestic PV market with great potential. According to the latest report from independent photovoltaic equipment research institute NPD Solarbuzz, the demand for photovoltaics in the Chinese market in 2011 has grown to 2,750 megawatts, making it the third largest photovoltaic market in the world after Germany and Italy. It even predicts that China may "become the world's largest PV market" in 2012. "The potential of the domestic market is recognized." In an interview with reporters, Lin Boqiang repeatedly called for Chinese PV companies to focus on the development of the domestic market; and the government should introduce more support and stimulus policies to stimulate the opening of the domestic market. He predicted that in the future, the PV application market including rooftop projects and photovoltaic building integration will be further released. In fact, since the end of last year, relevant government departments have issued relevant policies on a number of occasions to stimulate the upgrade of the domestic PV application market. On February 1, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the 2012 Golden Sun Demonstration" on its official website (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), marking the official launch of the fourth "Golden Sun" photovoltaic roof project. It is reported that the terminal of the fourth phase of the “Golden Sun†policy is a user-side photovoltaic power generation project such as an economic and technological development zone, a high-tech development zone, and an industrial park, aiming to accelerate the scaled application of photovoltaic power generation. The industry expects that the scale of the “Golden Sun†demonstration project in 2012 will exceed the planned amount of 600 MW in 2011. The “12th Five-Year Plan†of the photovoltaic system formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also predicted the “fee-free Internet accessâ€: by 2015, the cost of photovoltaic system will drop to 15,000 yuan/kW, the cost of power generation will drop to 0.8 yuan/kWh, and the distribution side will reach "Affordable Internet access"; by 2020, the system cost will drop to 10,000 yuan / kW, and the cost of power generation will reach 0.6 yuan / kWh, achieving "affordable Internet access" on the power generation side and achieving effective competition in the major power markets. The industry believes that once the PV level is realized online, China's PV industry will completely complete the transition from government-subsidized industries to market-driven industries, and its application market will be more extensive. The transformation of the film into the US “double-reverseâ€, coupled with the decline in subsidies in the European market affected by the European debt crisis and the frequent fluctuations in raw material prices, have caused the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry to be severely hit, lost and closed down, for some time Become the norm in this industry. Analysts believe that under this background, the technical and economic advantages of thin-film batteries will gradually become prominent, and it is expected to become one of the transformation directions of the domestic photovoltaic industry. Investment statistics in some regions have already reflected the enthusiasm of capital for films. Take Sichuan as an example. With many companies investing in the film sector in the region, their future plans to invest more than 23 billion yuan. The solar photovoltaic industry survey released by the Swiss investment bank Sarasin Bank shows that the top companies in the thin-film solar industry such as First Solar, General Electric, Sharp, Showa Shell and Hanergy Holdings are rapidly expanding the film industry. According to the report, among the top 10 PV companies, the future will have a minimum annual production capacity of 500 MW. It is expected that “by 2013, the thin film solar industry will be able to achieve an average annual growth rate of 32%â€. The 2012 China Solar Cell Industry Analysis and Investment Strategy Report predicts that in the long run, the market for lightweight, low-cost thin-film solar cells will grow, and its market size will reach US$4.6 billion in 2011. Expanded to $14 billion. From a technical point of view, as the photoelectric conversion rate of thin film batteries increases, its market prospects will become more optimistic. The data shows that the photoelectric conversion rate of some film products has reached 12%. Wang Bohua, deputy inspector of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, previously publicly stated that there are currently more than 60 domestic thin-film battery companies, although the proportion in the photovoltaic industry is still not high, but as a representative of new technologies, their energy conversion efficiency is gradually increasing, production The cost is also decreasing, and it is expected that the proportion will become higher and higher in the future and will show its own advantages in the future. In the opinion of analysts, in addition to the advantages of low energy consumption, short energy recovery period, automated production and weak light power generation, the development status of China's PV industry will also help the film industry. Among them, photovoltaic building integration (BIPV) is the most important thrust. As early as January 5, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Notice on Organizing the Implementation of the 2012 Solar Energy Photovoltaic Building Application Demonstration" to clarify that the building materials type and the building are highly integrated with the building. The subsidy standard is tentative. It is 9 yuan / watt; for the general form of use combined with the building, the subsidy standard is tentatively set at 7.5 yuan / watt. Compared with the 6 yuan/watt in 2011, the new policy for photovoltaic building subsidies has increased by 3 yuan/watt. This shows that the relevant national departments are increasingly valued for BIPV. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said in an interview that the development potential of photovoltaic buildings is “very huge†– “in Germany, after the implementation of the “roof plan†for the development of photovoltaic buildings, 80%-90% of the Internet Electricity comes from photovoltaic buildings, developed countries have followed suit. This is also worth learning in China." Meng Xianyu said. Xu Zheng, director of the Institute of Solar Energy, School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, said that “the policy subsidy will be tilted towards BIPV, which will help accelerate the development of the thin-film solar industry and ultimately drive the transformation and upgrading of the entire PV industry.
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