Sinochem New Network News With the increase of domestic natural gas and oil production, the United States’ energy self-sufficiency rate is continuously increasing and its export volume is also increasing. This will change the pattern of supply and demand in the world's energy market and at the same time enhance the structural advantages of the United States relative to other countries and regions.
When the Arab world imposed an oil embargo on the West in 1973, then U.S. President Nixon had vowed to use seven years to achieve energy self-sufficiency, but this oath failed to materialize. In 1973, US net oil imports accounted for 35% of its demand. After 7 years, the proportion of imports rose to 37%. By 2005, this proportion rose to 60%. However, the current trend of increase in the proportion of imports has been reversed. In the 12 months ending in August 2011, the proportion of US net oil imports to demand has fallen to 46%. Similarly, net natural gas imports accounted for the proportion of U.S. natural gas demand, rising from 4% in 1973 to more than 16% in 2007 and currently falling back below 9%.
In the oil sector, US net oil imports have fallen from nearly 13 million barrels per day at the end of 2006 to less than 9 million barrels per day today. The apparent demand for US oil also fell by 1.5 million barrels per day compared with the level at the end of 2006. At the same time, the United States has changed from a 2.5 million barrel importer into a net exporter today.
In the field of natural gas, the vigorous promotion of shale gas development has led to an oversupply of natural gas in the United States, which has weighed on prices. Although the U.S. government has issued an initiative to increase the use of natural gas, the actual effect is not satisfactory and the demand has not really increased. Some U.S. natural gas producers prefer to liquefy cheaper natural gas and then export it to higher-priced European and Asian markets to earn the difference. The dramatic increase in natural gas production in the United States has affected other markets. Natural gas cargoes previously exported to the United States have already turned to other parts of the world. Those companies that have enjoyed the benefits of natural gas supply and demand in Europe have already realized the competitive pressure from US natural gas suppliers.
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research Center estimates that shale oil production in the United States by 2015 should increase by at least 2.5 million barrels per day. Coupled with the increase in biofuel production and resistance to recovery in oil demand, such as the increase in automotive fuel economy standards, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that US oil imports will be reduced by half compared to the pre-crisis period.
Analysts said that due to the growth in demand from emerging markets, the sharp reduction in U.S. oil imports is unlikely to create significant pressure on oil prices, but it may constrain rising oil prices. The reduction in oil imports and the increase in net exports of high value-added refining products will reduce the U.S. trade deficit while highlighting the U.S. structural advantages relative to other economies, especially the euro zone.
When the Arab world imposed an oil embargo on the West in 1973, then U.S. President Nixon had vowed to use seven years to achieve energy self-sufficiency, but this oath failed to materialize. In 1973, US net oil imports accounted for 35% of its demand. After 7 years, the proportion of imports rose to 37%. By 2005, this proportion rose to 60%. However, the current trend of increase in the proportion of imports has been reversed. In the 12 months ending in August 2011, the proportion of US net oil imports to demand has fallen to 46%. Similarly, net natural gas imports accounted for the proportion of U.S. natural gas demand, rising from 4% in 1973 to more than 16% in 2007 and currently falling back below 9%.
In the oil sector, US net oil imports have fallen from nearly 13 million barrels per day at the end of 2006 to less than 9 million barrels per day today. The apparent demand for US oil also fell by 1.5 million barrels per day compared with the level at the end of 2006. At the same time, the United States has changed from a 2.5 million barrel importer into a net exporter today.
In the field of natural gas, the vigorous promotion of shale gas development has led to an oversupply of natural gas in the United States, which has weighed on prices. Although the U.S. government has issued an initiative to increase the use of natural gas, the actual effect is not satisfactory and the demand has not really increased. Some U.S. natural gas producers prefer to liquefy cheaper natural gas and then export it to higher-priced European and Asian markets to earn the difference. The dramatic increase in natural gas production in the United States has affected other markets. Natural gas cargoes previously exported to the United States have already turned to other parts of the world. Those companies that have enjoyed the benefits of natural gas supply and demand in Europe have already realized the competitive pressure from US natural gas suppliers.
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research Center estimates that shale oil production in the United States by 2015 should increase by at least 2.5 million barrels per day. Coupled with the increase in biofuel production and resistance to recovery in oil demand, such as the increase in automotive fuel economy standards, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that US oil imports will be reduced by half compared to the pre-crisis period.
Analysts said that due to the growth in demand from emerging markets, the sharp reduction in U.S. oil imports is unlikely to create significant pressure on oil prices, but it may constrain rising oil prices. The reduction in oil imports and the increase in net exports of high value-added refining products will reduce the U.S. trade deficit while highlighting the U.S. structural advantages relative to other economies, especially the euro zone.
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