Recently, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake struck the sea near the east coast of Japan, and five Japanese steel mills in the Tokyo Bay production base were facing production suspension. For the Chinese steel industry in Japan's neighboring countries, the operation of the Chinese steel industry can be improved to some extent. According to public information from the Japanese steel company, the earthquake directly affected the crude steel production capacity of about 26 million tons in Japan's three major steel mills. “From the perspective of product structure, the steel enterprises in the disaster-stricken areas mainly produce plates and pipes, such as JFE Chiba Plant, which mainly produces stainless steel and tin-plated substrates.†Hu Yanping, a joint metal analyst, told Caixin that the plates are Japanese exports. The main variety. "Japan's exports have been blocked due to the earthquake. The countries that imported from Japan will certainly turn to other countries to purchase steel. Therefore, the export volume of some medium-end steel products such as hot-rolled and medium-sized plates in China is expected to increase," Hu Yanping said. Xu Xiangchun, director of Beijing Steel Union Consulting, said in an interview with Caixin that Japan’s post-disaster reconstruction will bring huge demand to China’s steel industry, especially those that produce building-type steel. In the long run, due to the need for post-disaster reconstruction after the earthquake in Japan, a large amount of construction steel is needed. Among Japanese steel products, only 30% of construction steel products are produced. Wang Jinhua, an analyst at Guojin Securities, believes that the gap between supply and demand caused by the reduction in production of crude steel and automobiles in Japan is most likely to be filled by South Korea and China. “If it is fully filled by China, it will increase the utilization rate of China's crude steel capacity by 2.9 percentage points. Zheng Dong, an analyst at Guoxin Securities, pointed out in the research report that for the Chinese steel industry, the Japanese steel industry is mainly concentrated in the production of medium and high-end steel, such as silicon steel sheets and high-end car boards. The earthquake will directly affect the export of Japanese high-end steel, which will benefit China's high-end sheet metal producers. “For example, Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel.†Due to the reduction in Japanese steel production, the demand for iron ore is inevitably reduced. Affected by the earthquake news, the iron ore swap contract price of the London Clearing House in April fell by 4.15% on March 11th, the biggest drop since 2011. “Japan is the world's third largest importer of iron ore. In 2010, iron ore imports accounted for 12.78% of the global iron ore seaborne trade volume. If Japan's 25% crude steel capacity is affected, it will be further global. The hot iron ore market is cooling down." Wang Zhaohua believes. However, Guosen Securities believes that, further, the post-disaster reconstruction will inevitably lead to the growth of steel demand, and the demand for iron ore will increase, and the iron ore price will be pushed up in the long run. Japan's steel industry ranks second in the world, with crude steel production in 2010 at 109 million tons, second only to China. Japan’s Nippon Steel, JFE, Sumitomo Metal, Tokyo Steel, and Kobe Steel’s five steel mills account for 75%-80% of Japan’s total crude steel production, and dozens of the five major steel mills are mainly located in Tokyo. The central Kanto region and the southern region such as the Gulf, Osaka Bay and Fukuoka Bay. In 2010, Japan exported 43.4 million tons of steel, accounting for 45% of its output. It is the world's largest steel exporter. Its export varieties are mainly hot coil, galvanized sheet, cold coil, plate, welded pipe, electrical steel and stainless steel. These steels are mainly used in industries such as automobiles, home appliances and shipbuilding.
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