The recent extreme weather disaster triggered concerns about global wheat production cuts and the international wheat boom has soared. This is merely a microcosm of the decline in large grain production. Frequent outbreaks of extreme weather in the world and expectations of food shortages have caused an increase in the demand for international fertilizers. It is understood that the international urea price has risen sharply recently, and has driven the growth of domestic export orders, and the previous depressed domestic urea prices have also rebounded. Analysts said that the rise in urea prices will continue in the short term, and domestic urea listed companies are expected to obtain phased investment opportunities.
Rising domestic export orders
Extremely severe weather has caused strong expectations for global agricultural production reductions [17.70-3.12%]. Concerns over food shortages have triggered an increase in demand for international fertilizers, which has prompted a recent surge in the prices of international fertilizers, especially urea. On the other hand, Ukrainian raised the price of natural gas by 50% in August, India’s tendering earlier than expected, urea FOB FOB price rose from 245 US dollars/ton to 275 US$/ton, urea FOB increased from 253 US$/ton to 278～ 290 US dollars / ton.
The sharp rise in international urea prices also drove domestic urea prices to rise, and the domestic export urea cost advantage was quite obvious. At present, the freight rate at the port of Black Sea in Yogyakarta to India is 48 US dollars/ton, and the cost of landing is 326 to 340 US dollars. Since China implemented 7% off-season export tariffs, China FOB price of $ 266 / ton, if the freight to India of $ 31 / ton, the landed cost only $ 297 / ton.
China Merchants Securities [21.56-2.36%] pointed out that the domestic urea price advantage led to a surge in orders in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu, and the new transaction orders exceeded 300,000 tons within a week, driving the wholesale price of urea in Shandong and Shanxi regions to rebound first. 50 to 1,650 yuan / ton, prices have a proliferation trend.
A large number of export orders, most domestic urea companies have no sales pressure, many companies have tens of tons of export orders waiting to be sent. Due to strong international demand, the prices of mainstream manufacturers such as Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu, which have large urea exports, generally have an increase of 50 to 100 yuan per ton. At present, Hebei and Shanxi urea factory price 1600 ~ 1650 yuan / ton, Jiangxi, Anhui and other places prices have risen to 1700 yuan / ton. The price of urea in Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Southwest China also showed a significant rise.
Urea companies are doing their best
The current round of urea price increase is mainly supported by exports. At present, there are still many urea companies in the country that have been shut down due to low prices and rising costs. Therefore, in the short term, the urea price growth may continue, and domestic urea listed companies are expected to There will be phased investment opportunities. At present, China's urea listed companies are mainly divided into gas and coal heads. How do investors choose?
A brokerage analyst said that due to the gas head urea business production costs lower than the coal head enterprises, so in the urea rise, the gas head urea listed companies such as Liao Tong Chemical [10.40-2.80%] 000059, the closing price of 10.4 yuan, Jianfeng Chemical [9.62-4.28%] 000950, the closing price of 9.62 yuan, Sichuan Meifeng [7.03 2.33%] 000731, the closing price of 7.03 yuan and other benefits will be more apparent.
If the price of urea continues to rise, coal urea companies such as Hualu Hengsheng [14.55-2.35%] 600426, the closing price of 14.55 yuan, Hubei Yihua [17.82-2.57%] 000422, the closing price of 17.82 yuan, Liuhua shares [9.62- 4.47%] 600,423, closing price of 9.62 yuan to benefit will become increasingly apparent, because such enterprises outstanding technical advantages, the relatively low cost of production, income and urea account for a large proportion of main business revenues.