China's manufacturing encounters new challenges, trade strategy needs to be deeply adjusted

From August 24th to 25th, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council came to Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan in Guangdong Province to conduct research on the current economic trend, especially the stabilization of external demand and the acceleration of foreign trade transformation and upgrading. This is the second time that Premier Wen has gone to China's local provinces and cities for economic research this month. Premier Wen’s investigation shows that the leadership is worried that the export decline will not be effectively curbed. It highlights the serious situation of China's current foreign trade export situation. According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce in July, in the first half of the year, the national import and export volume was 1,839.84 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.0% over the same period of last year. Of this total, exports were 954.38 billion US dollars, up 9.2%; imports were 885.46 billion US dollars, up 6.7%; the surplus was 68.91 billion US dollars, up 56.4%. In the month of July, exports increased by only 1.0% year-on-year, much lower than the 11.3% of the previous month and the market expectation of 8.8%. At the same time, imports increased by 4.3% year-on-year, which was also lower than the 6.3% of the previous month and the market expectation of 7.0%. From the import and export data in the first half of this year, compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate of foreign trade, whether it is import or export, has a large decline, which has caused the community to achieve the 10% growth target for the whole year. Concerns about the realization and whether China's foreign trade will bottom out in the future. Recently, the China Institute of International Trade and the University of International Business and Economics jointly organized a number of situation analysis meetings and forums on foreign trade, and invited famous experts, scholars and officials from relevant government departments to discuss the current and future foreign trade situation and enterprises. Difficulties and development opportunities, published their own views, and put forward policy recommendations. The collective economic weakness of developed economies is difficult to say optimistic. Experts believe that the current world economic recovery is weak, the international market demand is declining, and China's pressure to maintain stable export growth is increasing. The European debt crisis is difficult to solve effectively in the short term. The risk of economic recession in the Eurozone is increasing. The high unemployment rate in the United States has restrained the consumption of residents. Japan is also facing the pressure of slowing exports, which restricts market demand. According to the Wall Street Journal, a new report on August 17 shows that Americans’ confidence in the country’s economy is growing. Following the slow economic growth at the beginning of the second half of this year, the United States recently released a series of encouraging economic data, which eased people's concerns about the economic recession, but also highlighted the slow and uneven economic recovery. The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose to 73.6 in August from 72.3 in July, the highest level since May. Employment growth accelerated in July, and layoffs were also slowing after a sharp increase in spring. Despite the recession in Europe and the slowdown in Asian economic growth, the exports that have contributed the most to the economic recovery so far have unexpectedly maintained strong resistance to shocks. At the same time, consumer spending is also increasing. However, the US economic growth is still weak, and the economic output in the second quarter only increased by 1.5%. Most economists expect the economy to grow moderately in the second half of the year. The unemployment rate is still at a high of 8.3% and has risen in two months in the past three months. The consumer confidence index released on August 17 reflects the instability of the economic recovery. The data shows that consumers are more optimistic about the status quo, but become more pessimistic about the future. Experts pointed out that although the US economic recovery is slow, the economic fundamentals are still stable in a moderate growth trend. As a result of painful deleveraging over the past few years, the leverage ratio of the US resident sector, non-financial corporations, financial institutions, or the proportion of total social debt to GDP in the United States has now declined significantly. If there is still a bright spot in foreign trade this year, then compared with the EU and Japan, the United States will be the highlight of our foreign trade. Shen Danyang, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular press conference that the situation of EU exports is not optimistic. Although the European debt crisis has further developed and upgraded and is deteriorating, and the import demand of EU countries has fallen sharply, Beyond the prejudgment of many experts. The EU has always been China's largest export market. Even though the EU's status as China's largest export market was replaced by the United States in the first half of this year, its share of China's export market is still around 17%. EU demand is declining. Exports are bound to be affected. Due to factors such as fiscal austerity, labor market reforms and rising financing costs, the economic recession in Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and other countries is particularly serious, driving the overall decline of the EU economy. According to the World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund on July 16, the euro zone economy will shrink by 0.3% this year, and only 0.7% of the weak growth will be achieved next year. Italy and Spain will be in a recession in the recession this year and next, while the German and French economies are in a downturn. The IMF pointed out that the most imminent risk of global economic growth is still the deterioration of the euro zone debt crisis caused by the lag and lack of decision-making actions. On August 14, the European Union Statistics Bureau released the latest data. In the second quarter of this year, the German economy grew by 0.3% from the previous month. The French economy has zero growth. The Italian, Spanish and Portuguese economies contracted by 0.7%, 0.4% and 1.2% respectively. The Greek economy declined year on year. 6.2%. The above economic indicators reveal two layers of information: first, the German economy has a slowing trend; second, the heavily indebted countries still do not see the hope of economic growth, and the recession has not yet bottomed out. Sun Zhenyu, president of the China World Trade Organization Research Association, believes that because there is no unified fiscal policy and diplomatic power, there are many difficulties in resolving the European debt crisis. It is not a matter of overnight for the EU to really solve the problem. It should be a systematic project. "Europe is still in a state of pause or slow decline. So the overall situation in the Eurozone is not so optimistic. I think the European debt crisis still needs a relatively long process to solve." Sun Zhenyu gave his own judgment. The global economic slowdown has been more than a matter for several European countries. The economic turmoil in the past four years has also seriously affected the emerging markets that have always been in the forefront of the economy. Recently, many signs indicate that China, India, Brazil and Russia The economies of large emerging market countries, such as those represented, have also experienced slowing and volatility. The British "Financial Times" reported that Japan's trade deficit in July hit a record high since the record, because the country's exports to the third largest trading partner EU fell sharply. According to data released by the Japanese government on August 22, Japan’s exports to the EU in July fell by 25% year-on-year. As Japan continues to import large quantities of fuel to replace lost nuclear energy, Japan’s monthly deficit rose to 517 billion yen ($6.5 billion), almost twice as much as the general expectation, and the largest since July in 1979. Counterbalance. China's manufacturing encounters the "re-industrialization" of the United States and the new challenges of the third industrial revolution. Experts believe that in addition to the lack of demand caused by the weak economic situation in Europe and the United States, Chinese foreign trade enterprises face a severe external trade environment. On the one hand, developed countries such as the United States and Europe have proposed "re-industrialization" and the return of manufacturing, and fierce competition with Chinese enterprises in the high-end manufacturing sector. On the other hand, trade frictions against China have increased, and trade remedies initiated by countries and regions have been investigated. The increase in anti-dumping, countervailing, special insurance, etc., coupled with the geopolitics of the US presidential election, has increased the special uncertainty of the world economy. Competitiveness is the key to the development of foreign trade. At present, China's industrial development is facing a situation in which international competition is intensifying and developed countries pay more attention to the real economy. Developed countries such as Europe and the United States have vigorously promoted the return of manufacturing industry and strived to seize the highlands of manufacturing, especially in the areas of high-end manufacturing and emerging industries. Since the financial crisis, the US and European countries have recognized the importance of the real economy to national competitiveness and employment, and have put forward the idea of ​​developing a real economy. Some European countries have proposed plans for industrial return, and the United States has promoted the strategy of “re-industrialization”. In particular, after Obama took office, he launched a series of projects and plans such as the Advanced Manufacturing Partnership Program, the National Robotics Program, the US Selective Initiative, and the National Export Initiative, in an effort to seize the highlands of the manufacturing industry. Master these high and new technologies, cultivate new advantageous industries, and continue to control the leading position of global industrial layout. In 2011, US investment in new energy reached US$55.9 billion, an increase of one-third, and it has surpassed China to become the world's largest investment in this field. Not only that, but in the traditional industrial field, the United States vigorously promoted traditional industries and returned to the United States. In addition, the United States has adopted an encouraging policy for the return of these industries, which is unprecedented in the history of the United States. A report issued by the Boston Consulting Group believes that by 2015, manufacturing labor costs in the United States and China will be very close. In 2020, the United States may return 3 million jobs from overseas. After five years, the total cost of China's coastal industries is only 10% to 15% lower than in some parts of the United States. Since 2012, Garton, Caterpillar, headset manufacturer SleekAudio, toy manufacturer Wham-O and other companies have removed some of their foundry factories in China and moved their production lines back to the United States. Zhang Xiangchen, director of the Policy Research Office of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the US revitalization of the manufacturing strategy is a long-term strategy of the United States, and it is both a challenge and an opportunity for China. From the perspective of challenges, it will mainly increase the difficulty for China to upgrade to the high end of the value chain. There is a contradiction between the US manufacturing strategy and China's industrial upgrading strategy, because China's industry needs to develop from the low end to the middle end and high end, and it may also cause some middle and high-end manufacturing enterprises to return, and compete around high-end manufacturing. It will be more intense. At the same time, if China can enhance its sense of urgency and take measures to develop the real economy and improve its investment policies, it will be able to build and form its own new advantages in a new round of global industrial layout and competition. Zhang Xiangchen also pointed out that the international community is now discussing the third industrial revolution, and the wave of the American industrial revolution has four characteristics: First, the rapid growth of wireless network technology. The United States plans to achieve 98% coverage of its fourth-generation network within five years. Second, cloud computing is driving the era of big data. Large enterprises use cloud computing in a large way, storage and data processing capabilities are greatly enhanced, which can save 90% of the cost; third, promote smart manufacturing. A typical example of smart manufacturing is the mechanical combination of digital and technology to reshape manufacturing. The most typical is the so-called 3D printer; fourth, the technological breakthrough of brewing new energy. In the United States, the stock of shale gas in 2010 has exceeded 130 billion cubic meters, and 80% of natural gas can be self-sufficient. Some predict that the United States will be able to achieve energy independence by 2030 or even earlier, and it can use cheap energy to support manufacturing development. This year is the election year for the United States. At this time, both the Republican and Democratic parties will have a tough voice against China, which may have a certain impact on Sino-US trade. However, experts believe that no matter who is the president, there will be no major changes in Sino-US economic and trade relations. Republican presidential candidate Romney has attacked Obama’s trade policy toward China "has failed" and said that if he enters the White House, he will declare China a currency manipulator the next day and impose additional tariffs on Chinese products. Romney’s strong attack has worsened the domestic economic and trade cooperation with China, blaming China and promoting trade protection. On the Democratic side, in order to run for re-election, the Obama administration has defended its economic and trade policies toward China on the one hand, and attacked China's "state capitalism" and "avoiding trade rules" on the other. Any of Wei Wen, the head of the China-US European Strategy and Economic Research Center of the China International Trade Association, believes that the central issue of the US presidential election this year is the domestic economy. The key point is that the unemployment rate is still tenaciously above 8%. "China's factors are not as strong as the previous elections. Luo attacked the trade deficit with China and the RMB exchange rate, but it is a scapegoat for Obama's economic policies that lead to weak recovery and high unemployment. This situation will continue until the end of the election." He Weiwen believes that in general, no matter who is the president, there will be no major changes in Sino-US economic and trade relations. Recently, the two parties have replaced the president twice, and Sino-US trade has not been greatly affected. In 2001, Republican Bush Jr. replaced the Democratic Party in the White House, which coincided with the economic recession. Global trade fell for two consecutive years, but trade with China continued to grow. In 2009, the Democratic Party (Obama) replaced the Republican Party in the White House, coincided with the financial crisis. In that year, global trade contracted by 22.9%, but the trade with China fell by less than half. In 2010, the rate of recovery was still slightly higher than that for global trade. As a result, global trade in 2010 has not recovered to the level before the financial crisis, and trade with China has been 12.1% higher. "This shows that the objective basis of Sino-US trade lies in the complementarity of the two economies and the applicability of products, which are not easily changed by politicians." He Weiwen said. Low-cost competitive advantage, exhausted enterprises, cost pressures, foreign trade companies are in trouble. In addition to the external environment, domestic factors can not be ignored. As China's labor, land, environment, resources and energy, RMB exchange rate and other factor costs and asset prices continue to rise, China's low-cost competitive advantage for 30 years will gradually decline. Experts said that the rising production costs of enterprises in recent years are an important factor leading to business difficulties and the decline in foreign trade imports and exports. The first is the increase in labor costs. In the past three years, the average wage of urban workers has risen by 33%. In the past two years, most regions have raised the minimum wage by more than 20% every year. Since this year, some regions have raised their wages. The “five insurance and one gold” expenditures of enterprises have also Increase accordingly. The rising cost of labor has become the most powerful issue for companies. Secondly, the price of raw materials rose. In the past two years, the industrial producers' purchase price index has risen by 19.6%. Although some basic raw material prices have been adjusted this year, they are still at a high level. In particular, the price of land has risen very quickly. Once again, the problem of small and medium-sized micro-enterprise loans is still very difficult. The enterprises that can obtain loans also reflect higher financing costs. At present, export companies have difficulty in raising prices externally, profit margins have been compressed, and operating pressures have increased. Zhao Jinping, deputy director of the Foreign Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that despite the current severe situation, Guangdong and Shenzhen are still raising the minimum wage. “Enterprises don’t understand this point, and the wages paid to employees are far higher than the minimum wage. But this behavior of raising the minimum wage has a guiding effect. Employees naturally believe that since the government is raising the minimum wage, the company We should give us a rise in wages. Therefore, the pressure on the wage increase for enterprises is also very large." Zhao Jinping believes that industrial transfer has a very important impact on the decline of China's foreign trade growth rate and the decline in exports from coastal provinces. "From the situation at the beginning of this year, our overall export growth rate has dropped significantly, and it is directly related to the significant decline in the contribution of the eastern coastal areas to the national export. In other words, the trend of export industry transfer is still quite prominent. "Zhao Jinping said. Zhao Jinping used Foxconn in Shenzhen as an example to illustrate the impact of industrial transfer on exports. Foxconn's exports in 2011 accounted for 18% of the entire Shenzhen export. Although Foxconn’s exports to the mainland increased by 48% in the first quarter of this year, most orders have shifted from Shenzhen to Henan and Sichuan. “Foxconn’s employees in Shenzhen reached 500,000 at the most, and now it’s less than 400,000. Only Shenzhen Foxconn’s industrial transfer and order transfer have caused Shenzhen’s export speed to fall by 5.8 percentage points.” Zhao Jinping calculated Accounts can be seen that the contribution rate of the eastern coastal areas to the national export growth is weak, declining, and falling. In fact, it is also one of the reasons for the severe export situation this year, especially the industrial transfer. "Accordingly, this is consistent with the strategic goal we encourage to promote the development of the central and western regions. It should be said that it is one of the achievements of industrial transfer. The problem lies in the central and western regions, whether it is industrial supporting environment, scale and international competitiveness and coastal There is still a big gap between the regions. Although they are growing rapidly, the contribution to the growth or growth of national export growth is very limited,” Zhao Jinping said. Our survey in Guangdong or coastal areas found that in addition to the transfer of some enterprises to the central and western regions, a considerable number of enterprises have directly turned their production bases and orders abroad. Independent innovation can alleviate foreign trade pressure Zhao Jinping believes that the policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth in the next stage should be mainly in three aspects: First, we must step up implementation of the stable foreign trade policy measures that have been introduced or are being introduced, and strengthen tracking and supervision. Second, strengthen the fine-tuning of macroeconomic policies and improve the business environment. In particular, enterprises have reflected the problem of outstanding financing difficulties and high financing costs. "Some companies report that even if they can borrow more than 10% of the cost of the loan, the enterprise is overwhelmed. Although the interest rate cut is beneficial to alleviate the difficulty of financing and high financing costs, it is far from enough." Third, in the current difficult economic situation, wage growth should be maintained at a more reasonable pace, avoiding the expected rise in wages, which will increase the pressure on labor costs. Zhao Jinping also gave his own suggestions for the future development of foreign trade enterprises. "Intensifying independent innovation and cultivating more independent intellectual property products and independent brands is a very effective way to deal with the crisis." Under difficult circumstances, enterprises will hope to ease the pressure of foreign trade through innovation, new products and the development of new markets. “We found such a private enterprise doing kitchen appliances in the survey. The scale of the company is not large, about a few thousand people. Its kitchen appliances are sold to Europe 50%. Under this situation, the export growth still reaches 20% or more. The reason is because it constantly invents and innovates and develops new products. Its R&D investment accounts for 4% of sales value. Its patents are 130, and the output value of new products in 2011 accounts for 60% of the total industrial output value.” Zhao Jinping said.

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